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On your electric bike? Maybe.

By David Bailey on Jul 6, 12 09:10 PM in Sustainable Industries


I'm just back from Beijing. Aside from the huge amount of traffic and how many premium cars there were on the roads (Audis everywhere but Jaguars and Range Rovers popping up more and more often), what struck me was the number of small electric cars and bikes that that were quietly zipping around the city.

China leads the world on small electric cars or buggies, and on electric bicycles or e-bikes. Nearly 30 million such bikes will be sold there this year - accounting for most of the global market, with the total e-bike 'pool' in China estimated as high as 120 million. They are cheap and easy to use and make for a good alternative to motorbikes or scooters especially when some 90 Chinese cities have banned the latter over of local pollution fears.

That of course raises the question of where the electricity comes from, and may simply be shifting the problem somewhere else if the electricity comes from coal power. A second environmental challenge is around batteries; Chinese e-bikes tend to use lead-acid batteries rather than the lithium-ion ones seen in new e-bikes here, and one wonders if and how these are recycled and disposed of.

Another issue is safety, with e-bikers nipping in and out of hugely congested traffic flows, on and off pavements and in and out of bicycle lanes, sometime carrying several passengers or big loads of materials. We had numerous 'near misses' in our taxis, and even paid one taxi driver extra to slow down to avoid accidents with bikers.

Nevertheless, the point is that there is already a huge market in China and I'm wondering if it will catch on in a big way here. Germany and the Netherlands so far represent the biggest European markets so far, with some governments providing subsidies to e-bike buyers to encourage their take up - as high as €400 in Paris.

By 2010 one in eight bicycles sold in The Netherlands was an e-bike, despite the fact that on average an e-bike is three times more expensive than a 'normal' bicycle. There, bike highways between cities are becoming more popular, with a 15 mile stretch between Rotterdam and The Hague, being planned. These make it easier for cyclists to travel long distances and go faster.

In fact, e-bikes constitute the biggest-ever take-up of alternative-fuel vehicles, way in excess of electric cars. The market research firm PikeResearch forecast that the worldwide electric two-wheel vehicle market is expected to grow at an annual rate of 9% until 2016 even though the "lack of a well-defined retail channel" hampers faster adoption in North America and Europe.

Not surprisingly, some car firms are looking at the marker. BMW is looking at an e-bike that can fold up and fit into the back of one of its new electric i-cars. Think of it as a range extdender or a neat way of finishing off a journey when you've parked. Around 200 of the BMW prototypes will be used in the London Olympics. VW is also looking at launching its own e-bike, through its Seat and Audi brands.

There could be a profitable market for such firms as part of wider 'mobility packages'. And while e-bikes in China might cost just over £100, here in Europe they average over £1000, in part because of more sophisticated battery technology, motor design and warranties.

Will it catch on here? Maybe. I had a go on one recently and whilst sceptical initially I came back with a big grin on my face like the Christmas day I had a new Raleigh bike as a kid, in part because gliding up a steep hill on battery power took the strain off my tired knees.

Professor David Bailey works at Coventry University Business School

31 Comments

p.kelly said:

'Jaguars popping up in China' - that's handy, 'cos they're going down like ninepins in Jag's largest market, the United States, and in its home market, the UK.


'and may be shifting the problem' - what problem? Oh Global Warming (caused by the burning of fossil fuels, like coal, causing CO2 concentration in the upper atmosphere to increase). Except it ain't happening - global warming. Who says? The UK Met Office; no warming since 1997. Oh dear, the 'expert' peddling mis-truths again to the dumbed-down little people. (http://www.reading.ac.uk/news-and-events/releases/PR428852.aspx)


'Chinese e-bikes tend to use lead-acid batteries and one wonders if and how these are recycled and disposed of' - er, like the approximate 100 million plus lead-acid batteries dealt with and recycled each year from motor vehicles. Lead acid batteries currently go for around £400/tonne scrap value - rather valuable. Where do they get these 'experts'?


'Not surprisingly, some car firms are looking at the marker' (sic). If you'd done your homework you would know that rather than just looking some car companies already have product on sale: the Smart (Mercedes-Benz) ebike, on sale since May 2012 - see uk.smart.com.


All the way to China to bring back such pearls of wisdom - either that or ten minutes on Google...

Adrian Coleman said:

You're such a bore Mr Kelly. you live in cloud cuckoo land if you think global warming isn't happening. And your comments here constantly slag off jlr and British manufacturing. You sound like a bitter has-been to be frank. And your comments add zilch to this blog. Yet again.

p kelly said:

@A Coleman,


thanks for the comment.


Let's deal with facts rather than juvenile personal attack.


Mr Bailey's blog was fundamentally unsound - not an uncommon event.


Even the UK Met Office admits there has been no increase in global temp. since 1997.


The majority of ordinary people, not on-the-gravy-train shills, are by now, even after 20+ years of incessant 24/7 propaganda, at least sceptical of AGW, if not outright disbelievers/'deniers' - no doubt in your language. Contrary to all the mainstream media's propaganda the people now trust their own eyes. Fancy that.


His[Bailey's] attempts at blogging on the subject of electric vehicles have been, like the current one, technically inept, based on fundamental misconceptions, and of course, all predicated on the urgent need to control man-made emissions of CO2, lest we all drown/die of sunstroke in '52 deg. North', in the next five minutes. What happened to Gore's prediction of the arctic ice cape melting within five years, made back in the early 2000s?


I know, from personal experience, it is not, and never has been popular, with the 'groupthink'-type person to be the one to cry 'the emperor has no clothes', but that doesn't make it not the right thing to do. The truth is the truth. No amount of PR, paid bloggers, groupthink, ad hominem attacks on 'deniers' will deny the truth, ultimately. That is what is now occurring with your AGW scam. The people have seen through it. I almost feel sorry for people like you once the people unleash their full backlash fury on the fraudsters behind AGW, and all their lackey handmaidens in the corporate media - almost. The now feted Eric Blair - George Orwell - said in his day that telling the truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act. In 2012 that is so much more the case than 1948.


As to JLR and UK manufacturing. Firstly, the latest exposé of the spivs and criminals that operate in the once feted, 'wealth-generating' City of London tells you all you need to know about the UK establishment's real attitude to genuine wealth creation - value-added manufacturing - in the UK. Secondly, JLR has been, in the last two years especially, the posterchild of the UK's 'manufacturing renaissance', 'the march of the makers'. Setting aside it, JLR, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors based in India, and therefore deserving of no more 'British' respect than a BMW at Hams Hall entity or a Ford at Dunton entity, for the South East's economy, the similar to the AGW incessant PR for JLR is stomach-turning in its desperation-tone and transparentness.


The truth is, as I said in my original comment, Jaguar is losing sales hand over fist in the US, even after launching the facelifted XF less than six months ago in that market, and is suffering stagnant/falling sales in the UK market. This jars with the 'message' put out by Bailey et al in the corporate media, giving the layman the impression that Jaguar is going from one triumph to another. Land Rover, the supposed moneyspinner of the JLR group, is entirely dependent on the sales of one product, the Evoque. Again, thanks to the concerted efforts of the hacks in the UK media, the Evoque has been bought in large numbers by customers sucked in by the huge hype. After almost one year on sale the reality of woeful fuel economy, outdated electronics interfaces, random faults, poor customer support from LR's dealer network, basically the usual time-proven litany of problems with a Land Rover product, not to mention its incredible, gouging prices, are now coming to the fore. See this discussion on the UK's largest Evoque forum for instance: http://babyrr.com/forum/Thread-Good-Bye-Evoque-Evoque-Forum


I could mention all the hype over the as yet still unbuilt new JLR engine factory in Wolverhampton, which at the time of announcement, 15 months ago, was supposedly to build a brand new family of fuel-efficient, state of the art, petrol and diesel four-cylinder engines. Well, firstly, the construction of the plant hasn't even begun, and the 'new' engine family turns out to be a Ford designed engine, the kind you will find in a humble £50k Land Rover or Jag, and presumably to be screwdriver assembled, not made, under licence. Just another example of the PR lies versus the truth surrounding the 'saintly' JLR. By the way, the unpublicised plan for JLR was for the owner, Tata, to float it off this year, so that Tata could pocket billions over its purchase price, like a Facebook style float. Unfortunately, for Tata, it looks increasingly like China, the one real brightspot for JLR sales, is headed into its own imploding, bubble-economy burst, which entriely scuppers Tata's plan to get rid of JLR and cash in.

p kelly said:

sorry, the middle of the last paragraph should read: 'the kind you will find in a humble sub-£20k Mondeo rather than a £50k-plus Land Rover or Jag'

David Bailey said:

all comments welcome even if (especially so) I don't agree with them. At least someone is reading the blogs.

Re 'Shifting the problem' I was actually talking about pollution, not gloabl warming per se. But for the record my reading of the scientific evidence is rather different to Mr Kelly's - ie that it is happening and that by implication we need to decarbonise our economic activities.

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