There has never been an adequate answer to the question of how the government could be certain that electors in the country's 12 largest cities would vote in favour of David Cameron's pet mayoral project in consultative referendums, which were expected to be held next May.
Given that most councillors are against the idea - turkey's don't vote for Christmas - there was never much chance of vigorous vote-for-a-mayor campaign getting off the ground in Birmingham.
The government simply cannot take the risk of nationwide 'no' votes in mayoral referendums.
It looks like Cameron has brilliantly solved the conundrum by deciding to get the mayors in place before holding referendums.
Although this is speculation at the moment, it seems possible that Birmingham and the other cities will have their mayor in place in 2012 and then, perhaps, a couple of years later the people will be asked in a referendum whether they wish to continue with the new system.
This has two obvious advantages from Cameron's point of view. The first is that it gives the mayors a chance to make their mark and strike a chord with the electorate. The second is that once a mayoral system is in place, most people probably won't feel strongly enough about the issue one way or another to vote for a return to the old system - a kind of better the devil you know attitude.
The countdown is underway, therefore, to the inauguration of Birmingham's first directly elected mayor.
As to who that person might be, my money is on the Great Survivor himself, Labour's Sir Albert Bore.
If current voting trends continue and if, as seems likely given huge public spending cuts, support for the government slumps, Labour could expect to be in a position by 2012 to command a slender majority in the Birmingham council chamber. Given the city-wide nature of a mayoral election, growing support for Labour is likely to be translated into victory for a Labour mayor.
Sir Albert, whose support for a mayoral system is well documented, must be odds on to be selected as his party's official candidate. Can't quite see former Erdington MP Sion Simon, the only person so far to say he wants the job, attracting enough votes.
It would be sweet revenge for Sir Albert, who was roundly humiliated by his group when he dared to speak out in favour of mayors in 2002.
And as Mayor of Birmingham, he would be able to select his own cabinet and not be at the whim of Labour group elections. We would be most unlikely to see some of the more unsuitable cabinet members forced on Sir Albert between 2000 and 2004 when he was council leader.
As for the Conservatives, city council leader Mike Whitby has been so vehemently opposed to mayors that it is difficult to see his party selecting him to run for Mayor of Birmingham. It is possible that Conservatives and Liberal Democrats nationally may put pressure on the parties in Birmingham to run a coalition candidate for mayor. Lib Dem Paul Tilsley, perhaps, or Yardley MP John Hemming.
Don't think they will stand much chance of beating Sir Albert in 2012, though.