Results tagged “by-election” from Birmingham Post - News Blog

Initial reaction at Westminster to the prospect of yet another by-election is that this could finally do Brown in.
John MacDougall, whose death was announced a few hours ago, represented Glenrothes, a constituency neighbouring Gordon Brown's own seat of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.

Losing here, when Labour gained a 10,000 majority in 2005, would make it very clear to members of the governing party that none of their seats are safe.

But Brown is planning to put off the day of judgment for as long as possible - and there will be no election until after the Labour conference, in late September. (It is possible to move the writ for a by-election even when Parliament is not sitting when an MP dies).

This gives him time to begin to turn things around. Mr Brown's best hope of ending leadership speculation is to deliver a cracking speech to conference, reassert his authority by reshuffling his Cabinet and make a success of his Cabinet meeting in Birmingham, which will be presented nationally as part of his efforts to listen to and understand the concerns of ordinary people.

Things could change before the by-election takes place. Still, people are wondering whether he could survive another by-election loss.

Latest gossip in Westminster is that the SNP is ahead in the Glasgow East by-election.

Of course, I have no idea if it will prove to be true when the result is announced about nine hours from now.

But it will be a disaster for Gordon Brown if his party has managed to lose a seat where it had a 13,500 majority - to the SNP, which is actually in power in the Scottish administration and shouldn't be receiving the type of boost opposition parties normally enjoy in by-elections.

Last night I predicted that Mr Brown would remain Labour leader until the next General Election no matter what.

My opposite number on the Liverpool Daily Post has a different view, and reckons Mr Brown will be out by the end of this year if he loses tonight.

Two members of the Government have suggested to me that Labour should not even put up a candidate in Haltemprice and Howden - and let David Davis fight it out with Miss Whiplash and the Monster Raving Loony Party.

The idea would be to portray the Shadow Home Secretary's decision to resign from the Commons as a stunt, which will force an expensive by-election which nobody wants.

It's certainly hard to see what a by-election will prove. If his seat was a Conservative/Labour marginal then, perhaps, a by-election resulting in a crushing Tory victory would prove that the public backs Mr Davis in his campaign to defend "fundamental British freedoms".

But it's actually a Tory-held seat where the Lib Dems are the challengers - and they're not even going to stand against him. Referring to Wednesday's vote on holding terror suspects for 42 days, Mr Davis said that if he is returned to Parliament it will be "with a single, simple message - that the monstrosity of a law that we passed yesterday will not stand." But the message, surely, will simply be that without a Lib Dem candidate, his is a safe Tory seat.